The Study of China’s Manufacture Goods Export Duration Based on the Kaplan-Meier Method

This paper is based on the CEPII database’s the 6 – digit HS code exported trade data in 2003-2010, and using the survival analysis method to analyze the duration of the China exported industrial manufactured goods’ relations, the results of the study has found that the duration of our countries’ exported industrial manufactured products trade relations is relatively short, mostly trade relations are only 2 to 3 years. On this basis, this paper has put forward that our countries’ policy should establish the early warning system, stabilize and deepen the existing trade relations to maintain the steady development of the exported trade.